188JILI Insurance Blackjack: What the Side Bet Really Pays

Insurance blackjack is the side bet the dealer offers the moment an ace turns face up, and it is one of the few bets whose cost you can work out on a napkin. This page shows the arithmetic behind it so you can decide at the table without a guess. Blackjack is one of the Pinoy card games listed beside Tongits, and JILI’s own Blackjack page lists insurance among its options.

What insurance blackjack is

Insurance is a side bet that the dealer has a ten-point card in the hole. It is offered when the dealer already has an ace up, so it wins when the dealer has blackjack. Wizard of Odds and Wikipedia agree on the terms.

The arithmetic for a six-deck shoe

Wizard of Odds assumes six decks (312 cards) and no information beyond the dealer’s ace. One card is removed for that ace, leaving 311. There are 96 ten-point cards (16 per deck: the 10, J, Q and K in four suits, times 6 decks), so 96 cards win the bet and 215 lose it.

1. Chance the bet wins: 96 / 311, about 30.9%.
2. Win contribution at 2 to 1: 2 x 96 / 311 = 0.6174, or 61.74%.
3. Chance the bet loses: 215 / 311 = 0.6913, or 69.13%.
4. Expected result: 0.6174 - 0.6913 = -0.0740, or -7.40%.

For every ₱100 you put on insurance, you expect to lose ₱7.40 over many hands. The assumption that matters is the deck count: this figure is for six decks and no other cards known.

A ₱200 example you can follow

Say you bet ₱200 and take ₱100 insurance with a dealer ace showing.

Without insurance you lose ₱200 in the first row and nothing extra in the second. With it you break even in the first row and lose ₱100 in the second. The dealer has blackjack in 96 of 311 cases, about 31% of the time, so the second row is the common one. Wikipedia puts it plainly: the dealer has blackjack less than one-third of the time.

Fewer decks, a smaller cost

Wizard of Odds explains that the edge on insurance changes with the number of decks, because the ace already removed leaves the shoe slightly ten-heavy and the effect is stronger with fewer decks. A check with one deck: 52 cards, 16 tens-value cards, the dealer’s ace removed, so 16 winners and 35 losers among 51 cards. Expected result: 2 x 16 / 51 - 35 / 51 = -3 / 51 = -5.88%.

Either way the sign is negative. Wikipedia adds that insurance is only advantageous when the hole card has more than a one in three chance of being a ten, and 16 in 51 and 96 in 311 are both below that line.

Even money is insurance with another name

When you hold a blackjack and the dealer shows an ace, many tables offer even money. Taking it is the same as taking insurance, and Wizard of Odds shows why. Declining gives you 0 when the dealer has a ten in the hole (95 of 309 cards, a push) and 1.5 otherwise (214 of 309 cards).

1. Even money pays a certain 1 unit.
2. Declining pays 1.5 x 214 / 309 = 1.0388 units on average.
3. The difference is about 0.0388 units per bet, or 3.88%, in favour of declining.

Those figures assume a six-deck shoe, no other cards known and a 3 to 2 payout for blackjack. Taking the sure unit feels better for a minute but gives that edge up.

What this means for a table game on 188JILI

JILI’s Blackjack page lists splitting, doubling down and insurance options and a 3:2 bonus for a blackjack at the start, and says you can play up to three hands per round. It does not state the number of decks, so open the game’s rules screen to read the deck count, and compare it with the table above. Declining insurance does not turn blackjack into a winning game; it only avoids a side bet whose edge Wikipedia notes is generally higher than the main game’s. Treat any rule about when to take it as arithmetic, never as a system, and read the house edge meaning for what a negative figure means over time.

If your next table is a different game, the poker card ranking covers five-card hands, the Pusoy Dos ranking for suits covers the climbing game, and the drop ball game pays on landing zones instead of cards.